Within the last week DUP Deputy Leader, Peter Robinson gave an address to Party faithful in Fermanagh emphasising that the Union is now safe. The Irish government, he said, have acknowledged that the constitutional issue is ‘parked’ and Sinn Fein are bound into British Institutions. There is of course an air of familiarity in these words. The argument Mr Robinson now puts forward has echoes of speeches by former UUP leader David Trimble, but Mr Robinson would counter that it is the St Andrew’s Agreement and the statement on the winding up of the IRA that has allowed them to deal with Sinn Fein at an institutional level.
But all is not well within the wider unionist camp. Within the last week Jim Allister has been vociferous in his attacks on the DUP, “…it is not me who has abandoned my mandate to embrace what was supposedly “out of the question”, namely IRA/Sinn Fein in government. It is not Jim Allister who has somersaulted.”
Mr Allister spoke to me the morning after his Moygashel meeting for disaffected unionists. He said that he had gauged opinion within the unionist community and that there are a large group of people unhappy with the direction the DUP has taken. Those people want Mr Allister to set up a new party – an anti-power-sharing party that would be very like the DUP used to be in its relations with the UUP.
It seems likely that Mr Allister may well concede to this request – but he will need to think carefully about it, for what the disaffected say in public is not necessarily how they will vote in the privacy of the ballot box. Unionists need to vote strategically and pragmatism may win the day leaving Jim Allister to smoulder as a political loner.
This week, Peter Robinson called on Mr Allister to resign and said that his actions, “perpetuate further divisions and disunity within Unionism – they aim to destroy our newly found optimism and confidence.”
Speaking to a Free Presbyterian source recently there is undoubtedly a group of disaffected unionist out there. Dr Paisley’s end of term at the helm of his Church is evidence enough of this. But even if every Free P votes for some new unionist party or doesn’t vote at all – it will do little to affect the DUP’s current position.
The UUP has its own problems. There is a significant level of discontent within the party that their leader, Sir Reg Empey, is spending more time on his departmental brief than on reforming the party. Is the disappearance of the Young Unionist section of the website just because it is being updated or is it because comments were beginning to appear that not everyone liked? Are Young Unionists part of the rumoured coup against the leadership?
Whether or not coups are being planned is largely irrelevant. What does matter is the outcome of talks between the DUP and UUP. What appetite is there for greater convergence? Are the DUP not really just the new UUP? And if that is the case could Billy Armstrong’s ideas of greater unity become inevitable?
Some think that many UUP voters will become convinced that it would be better to throw their lot in with the largest party, but others think that we are more likely to see some kind of electoral pact along similar lines to the old United Ulster Unionist Coalition.
The ground is undoubtedly still moving within all areas of Unionism. But what will be interesting to observe, in the run up to the general election, is who will be thinking about the longer term strategic interests of unionism and who will be thinking about the strategic interests of their party or their own seat.
Unionism has historically been obsessed with the short-term. Now that devolution is established and the extremes are working together in an institutional context, who is looking at the where unionism will be in a generation?
Ever wondered what it looks like inside some of the Stormont offices? Well most are fairly plain and ordinary but for the top dogs, the Ministers and the Speaker they get rather plush offices on the ground or first floor.
